How to do a sports betting analysis?

July 29, 2022

Placing a sports bet can be exciting and very beneficial, depending on how successful we are.

For this reason, and knowing that our money is at stake, we should never bet without having first analyzed the bet and without being clear about the method that we are going to apply in our forecast since that is the basis for increasing our success rate.

In this way, in this article, we will explain how to design your own methodology and what we should take into account, and what not in betting Senegal

Methodologies and variables for betting analysis

Many bettors may find it scary or boring to analyze a bet and establish a methodology when betting since they simply see it as entertainment and do not want to overcomplicate it.

Although it is true that carrying out an analysis and a betting method can be tremendously complex, it is really possible to improve the chances of success if we take into account a few variables, as we will see below.

Taking a football match as an example, we could consider the following variables:

  1. Classification
  2. Results as a local for one and as a visitor for the other.
  3. Dynamics of both teams in recent games.
  4. H2H. Direct clashes between them.
  5. Sensations.

In my opinion, with these variables, it is possible to carry out a perfect analysis of a bet, which allows us to establish a methodology without excessive complications since they are data that can be perfectly consulted in our sports forecasts and that do not take more than 5 minutes if you will.

How to analyze sports betting

Let us now see what information can be obtained by analyzing the aforementioned variables step by step.

1. See classification

It is important, especially if we are in the final part of a season, to know in which position both teams arrive classified. In general, the teams tend to offer superior performance in the second round, regardless of the position they occupy, due to the fact that they are running out of days to reach their objective.

This fact is especially observable in the teams that are in the relegation zone or close to it, where we have seen cases in which teams in relegation achieved victories against the top three classifieds, when in the first round, for example, they were totally thrashed.

2. Check results as a local and visitor

Except for the top teams and, perhaps, somewhere having their fans against them for certain circumstances makes them play in a bad environment, practically all soccer teams tend to achieve better results at home and worse away.

Therefore, when it comes to betting it is key to know who is playing at home and what results they have been reaping against all kinds of teams. The same for the one who plays as a visitor.

3. Study dynamics of both teams

This variable is closely related to the previous one and makes us focus on how both teams arrive at the game, and what results they have been obtaining in recent games both at home and away.

These data allow us to trace a team dynamic, which not only affects the way each team prepares and faces the match but also allows us to glimpse how it is possible that they react when they see themselves ahead on the scoreboard, by having a footballer expelled or seeing the result against early.

4. Check H2H. The direct duel

Another key factor to take into account is the H2H, the results that have occurred when they have faced each other and that, in many cases, do not coincide with the dynamics or situations of one and the other at that time. That is to say, two teams can arrive in an opposing qualifying situation and drag dynamics of totally different results, but when it comes to facing each other, the matches are usually very even.

5. Pay attention to our sensations

To know how to bet on soccer, you have to watch soccer, especially those competitions in which we are going to focus our predictions since although numbers and statistics are the key part when making a prediction (and for this, it is not necessary to watch the game), the icing on the cake for good analysis is provided by our intuition, which we must train and develop by watching games and getting to know squads and players.

Conclusions obtained from the betting analysis

Thus, by applying these principles, a totally suitable methodology can be developed that, in many cases, substantially increases our percentage of success in the sports predictions that we make.

However, it should be remembered that sports betting is not an exact science and because it is based on numbers, there is an important factor of chance, which is provided by the sporting event in question, in our case football. Therefore, no matter how meticulous and complete the analysis is, 100% accuracy is never guaranteed.

Our betting analysis example (prediction over 1.5 goals 80%)

As an example, let’s see in a summarized way the case exposed by the user Juan Manuel.

Sport: Soccer

Sample: 90 matches

Data obtained:

  • 0 goals have been scored in 7% of the matches, the probability of this happening could not be found, since few data are available and the result would not be reliable.
  • Only 1 goal has been scored in 15% of the games and the probability of it happening is greater as long as the home team does not exceed 12th position in the classification and the difference with the away team is not more than 7 places.
  • 2 goals have been scored in 33% of the games and the probability of this happening is greater as long as the home team is around 10th position and the difference with the visitor is not more than 6 places.
  • 3 or more goals have been scored in 45% of the matches and the probability of this happening is greater as long as the home team is above 9th position and the difference with the away team is not more than 5 places.

In summarizing, based on this analysis we can conclude that:

We observe that Over 1.5 occurs in 78% of cases and Under 1.5 in 22%.

The Over 2.5 occurs in 45% of the matches, while the Under 2.5 occurs in 55%.

The local teams above the 10th position and with a difference with the visitor of fewer than 5 places have a probability for the Over 1.5 always above 80%.

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